Blog.
Notes on prediction-market infrastructure, oracle design, and the math behind aviation as a tradable category.
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The math behind 500,000 binary markets per day
100,000 flights × 5 tiered outcomes is arithmetic, not aspiration. Why exactly five tiers, why aviation rather than sports or elections, and what the volume math implies at Polymarket-class liquidity.
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Prediction markets are supply-constrained
Elections produce twelve binary events a week. Aviation produces five hundred thousand. The bottleneck on platform GMV is not demand. It is the oracle layer.
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Why detection compounds: the data flywheel
Speed is a moat for six months. Data is a moat for six years. Every settled market labels training data for the next, and the lead grows over time rather than shrinks.