Kalshi integration.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. Every contract listed has to clear a deterministic-resolution bar — the rules for "how does this settle" have to be unambiguous, auditable, and free of human discretion. Aviax was built ground-up for that bar.
What plugs in
Aviax pushes structured flight-outcome events to Kalshi's contract listing system. Each commercial flight generates five binary contracts at scheduled departure: delayed by more than 15 minutes, by more than 30, by more than 60, cancelled, and diverted. Each contract has a deterministic settlement window and a single, observable resolution criterion.
Integration shape
REST query for upcoming flight schedules; webhook subscribe for resolution events. Kalshi's listing engine generates the standard contract from the Aviax payload. On window close, Aviax pushes the settled outcome with the underlying signal evidence; Kalshi marks the contract resolved and pays out.
The five-tier structure is intentional: 15 minutes is the FAA on-time threshold, 30 and 60 align with insurance and refund tier conventions, cancelled and diverted are tail-risk outcomes priced separately. Every threshold is industry-standard, which makes the contracts immediately interpretable to traders, regulators, and auditors.
Regulatory fit
CFTC review of new contract types weighs three things heavily: deterministic resolution rules, susceptibility to manipulation, and economic purpose. Aviax addresses each:
Deterministic resolution. Aircraft telemetry is the source of truth. Outcomes verify against machine-readable windows. There is no airline-API gap, no human attestation, no committee review.
Manipulation resistance. Aircraft signals are emitted continuously by the aircraft itself and observed by independent receivers. No single market participant can credibly fake the signal at the per-flight scale that would matter.
Economic purpose. Travel-risk hedging is a $30B+ latent market — travelers and travel companies have a real need to lay off delay risk, and parametric insurance has been the partial solution. Tradable flight contracts complete the hedging surface.
Volume math
Per-flight liquidity at $5K-$10K (Kalshi-class scale) implies $675M-$1.35B in daily notional book depth across US flights alone.
Resolution mechanics
The settlement window for each contract opens at scheduled departure and closes a fixed interval after scheduled arrival (the post-arrival reconciliation buffer). Aviax computes the settled outcome the moment the window closes and pushes it to Kalshi as a structured record with timestamps, signal observations, and the deterministic threshold check.
Audit trail: every settlement is signed by the Aviax oracle and includes the underlying telemetry observations. CFTC supervision can re-verify any contract's outcome from the public record without re-querying any third party.
Why this is now possible
Kalshi received its DCM designation in 2021. Real-time aircraft telemetry plus deterministic oracle attestation reached settlement-grade reliability in the last 18 months. The two halves of the stack are ready at the same time for the first time.