Polymarket integration.
Polymarket is a crypto-native event-contract exchange. Volume scales with the number of live, decisively-resolvable contracts. Aviax adds 500,000 binary contracts per day across 100,000 commercial flights — a 100× increase in active contract count without any change to Polymarket's matching engine, capital model, or UX.
What plugs in
Aviax oracle outputs feed Polymarket's settlement contracts directly. Each commercial flight produces five binary markets that mint at scheduled departure, trade through arrival, and settle automatically against the deterministic outcome window.
Polymarket's contract factory does what it already does. The new ingredient is the oracle: a continuous, settlement-grade feed that knows when a flight crossed each of its delay thresholds and pushes that decision to chain.
Integration shape
Webhook subscribe + REST query. Aviax pushes flight events on a stream as they happen; Polymarket's contract factory mints the corresponding binary markets and posts them to the orderbook. On settlement-window close, Aviax pushes resolved outcomes; Polymarket settles the contracts on-chain in a single transaction.
The five outcomes per flight are binary markets by design — no exotic structuring required, no need to build a new contract type. They behave identically to today's "Will the Fed cut rates by July?" markets, just at 100,000× the daily volume.
Volume math
At Polymarket's current per-contract liquidity of ~$1K, that's $500M/day in notional book depth. At ~$10K liquidity (Polymarket-class), that's $5B/day.
The bottleneck is not demand. It's the oracle layer. Polymarket can run elections every two years. Aviax can run flights every minute.
Resolution mechanics
Aircraft signal is the source of truth. Outcomes verify against deterministic, machine-readable windows. Settlement is fully automated — no manual adjudication, no airline API dependency, no disputes.
This is the same property Polymarket relies on today for sports-event contracts: the underlying outcome is observable and auditable. Aviax extends that property to a category that produces 500,000 settlements per day.
Why this is now possible
Real-time aircraft telemetry, automated oracle attestation, and Polymarket's matured contract factory all converged in the last 18 months. None of these existed at scale before 2024. The infrastructure for flight-as-a-market is here; the integration cost is a single sprint of webhook plumbing.